Straight
to the point, no honey and cream at the beginning as usual.
I
recently came across a mathematical equation called Drake Equation, which is
originally proposed to calculate civilizations that could possibly exist in our
galaxy. And elsewhere, a mathematical genius applied to calculate number of
singles in a given city and others to different purpose. I tried to twist a bit
and applied to calculate probability of a guy to fall in love in Chennai city,
it worked. As now it’s clear that this is not my own idea. But what exactly I have
done is used this equation for a different case in study, which in turn is a
new thinking.
Here we
go.
Adopted
and slightly modified Drake Equation
G = N
* Fw * Fl *Fa *Fv
*Fb
G = Number
of available women for a potential act of Love in Chennai who will qualify for
your criteria.
N =
Population in Chennai
Fw =
Fraction of population who are women in Chennai.
Fc =
Fraction of potential women who belong to your own community.
Fa =
Fraction of women in appropriate age group you like.
Fv = Fraction
of women who are educated with an engineering degree.
Fb =
Fraction of women who you find as attractive.
N =
Population in Chennai:
A quick Google
search gave me a figure of 5.9 million in 2009, so I will stick to it without either
any argument on its accuracy or looking into a more recent figure. This will do
for the case in question. So a million have six zeros? (Correct me if I’m
wrong). Then we have 5.9 ×106 is the
total population of Chennai.
Fw =
Fraction of population who are women in Chennai.
No Google
search this time, I roughly assume 50% of the population is women. So 0.50 of total are women.
Fc =
Fraction of potential women who belong to your own community.
For safer
side, if you like your girlfriend to be within your community this applies.
Roughly, say 5% (0.05).
Fa =
Fraction of women in appropriate age group you like.
Assuming
you are 27 year old and looking for someone around that age group, between 22
and 28. Let’s assume 25% (0.25) fits
in that bracket.
Fv = Fraction
of women who are educated with an engineering degree.
Let’s say
you prefer a girl who has an engineering degree. To add few words, Engineering
is the most preferred course in Tamil Nadu. There are about 400 Engineering
colleges in Tamil Nadu and each can host roughly 500 students per year,
eventually 2,00,000 a year. Half are women between 22-24, so one lakh women for
a given year fit in your condition. If you are 27/28 get all the girls in last
6/7 years who finished engineering 7×1,00,000. Discontinuing
the calculation further, I roughly assume 10% (0.10).
Fb =
Fraction of women who you find as attractive.
This is
very easy to assume since, “most of the guys like most of the girls out there”
and most of the Chennai girls are beautiful. I arrive at 50% (0.50)
Applying
all the numbers
G = 5.9 × 106 × 0.50 × 0.05 × 0.25 × 0.10 × 0.50
= 1843 women fit into your category.
So now
you have 1843 women with whom you
can potentially have an affair, who are in Chennai, belong to your community,
in your age group, with an engineering degree and you find as attractive.
Now, we didn’t
include their choices/preferences. They should also like you, which is “the
biggest of all conditions”. Now it’s tricky to assume what fraction of women
will like you. I am being generous here, say only 10% like you. We will end up
with 184 women.
We can
also take this further, like what is the probability to see one of the 184 women on a given weekend in a given
month and so on. I think better I will stop here. Final comments: I neither
encourage nor discourage anyone to fall in love desperately. When you are in a
mood to fall in love, use this equation to know the probability. No
philosophical ending here.
